Expert Comment: Net migration, asylum hotels and citizenship - what to look for on UK Migration Statistics day
Ahead of the next release of UK migration data on 21 May, researchers from the Migration Observatory at the University of Oxford set out what they will be watching for - from the trajectory of net migration to the use of asylum hotels and a surge in citizenship applications.
On 21 May, the Home Office and the Office for National Statistics will publish their latest figures on UK migration, covering visas, small boat arrivals, enforcement, and overall immigration, emigration and net migration. The release lands at a politically charged moment: net migration has fallen sharply from its 2023 peak, the government is under pressure to close asylum hotels, and applications for British citizenship hit a record high last year.
Researchers from the Migration Observatory at the University of Oxford, the UK's most trusted source of independent analysis of migration data and policy, will be analysing the figures for media and policymakers across the political spectrum. Here is what some of the team will be looking out for:
“Any decline in net migration below around 200,000 is likely to be temporary. Many migrants only stay in the UK for a few years, so higher levels of immigration tend to be followed by higher levels of emigration. Once people who came earlier in the decade leave, emigration will decline, so the ‘net’ figure will begin to tick back up. In fact, in five years’ time, net migration levels could look similar to what they are today.”
Net migration has been heading down fast – how far could it fall?
Dr Ben Brindle is a Researcher at the Migration Observatory with a PhD in Economics. His research focuses on net migration, the economic impacts of migration, work visas, and how migration patterns respond to changes in visa policy.
Net migration levels have resembled a roller coaster in recent years. After peaking at a historical high of 944,000 in 2023, it fell sharply after the last Conservative government introduced a suite of policies to restrict immigration, which the current Labour government has maintained and expanded. Net migration stood at 204,000 in June 2025, and we know that the government has been granting fewer visas since then, so I’m expecting further declines. Quite how much net migration will fall is incredibly uncertain, though. That’s because there’s an unusually high number of people in the UK who entered after Brexit and still have temporary visas: whether they stay or leave will have a big impact on net migration in the next couple of years.
Any decline in net migration below around 200,000 is likely to be temporary. Many migrants only stay in the UK for a few years, so higher levels of immigration tend to be followed by higher levels of emigration. Once people who came earlier in the decade leave, emigration will decline, so the ‘net’ figure will begin to tick back up. In fact, in five years’ time, net migration levels could look similar to what they are today.
Debate often focuses on the level of net migration, but the composition of migration is more important from an economic perspective, and this has changed significantly. Migration of care workers and international students’ family members – groups with broadly neutral economic impacts – has fallen, while asylum migration has remained at similar levels. Since refugees have lower employment rates and often need a lot of support from the state, this means that the composition of recent migration has probably become less favourable from an economic perspective.
“With regards to asylum, we’re looking to get two key questions answered on Thursday. First, how many asylum seekers remain in hotels? The Home Office first began using hotels at scale back in 2020, lacking alternative forms of accommodation. Numbers peaked in 2023 and have declined since, though they remain stubbornly high.... A second question concerns the number of new asylum applications. Numbers reached a record high in 2024 and have remained close to those peaks ever since. With unauthorised arrivals by boat declining slightly in recent months, it remains to be seen if this will also finally lead to fewer asylum claims.”
Is the government making progress towards closing asylum hotels, and did application numbers begin to fall?
Dr Mihnea Cuibus is a Researcher at The Migration Observatory with a PhD in Political Science. His research focuses on issues related to unauthorised migration, asylum, and border enforcement in the UK.
With regards to asylum, we’re looking to get two key questions answered on Thursday. First, how many asylum seekers remain in hotels? The Home Office first began using hotels at scale back in 2020, lacking alternative forms of accommodation. Numbers peaked in 2023 and have declined since, though they remain stubbornly high. The Labour government has struggled to bring them down since coming into office, despite promising to close all asylum hotels by 2029. A downward trend observed towards the end of last year may have continued into the first months of 2026, as fewer people are waiting for an initial asylum decision, and the government has moved more people into alternatives like military barracks. The scale of any potential decline matters for the government, as the high costs of hotels have contributed to record spending on asylum in recent years.
A second question concerns the number of new asylum applications. Numbers reached a record high in 2024 and have remained close to those peaks ever since. With unauthorised arrivals by boat declining slightly in recent months, it remains to be seen if this will also finally lead to fewer asylum claims. A lower number of new applications would relieve long-standing pressures on the UK’s asylum system as well as high spending on support for those waiting.
“The government has recently introduced proposals to make it harder for migrants to qualify for Indefinite Leave to Remain (ILR), while other political parties have suggested that ILR should be rescinded from people who already hold it and that the rules for gaining British citizenship should be tightened. In that context, some people may feel it is better to apply for citizenship now rather than risk tougher requirements later, including many EU citizens.”
Are record numbers of people applying for UK citizenship?
Dr Nuni Jorgensen is a Researcher at the Migration Observatory with a PhD in Geography. Her research focuses on the governance of forced migration and the dynamics of migrant and transnational families.
While net migration has been falling, more people already living in the UK are choosing to stay for the long term. The UK has seen a spike in citizenship applications, with 292,000 applications made in 2025, the highest level since the data series began in 2004.
The main reason is the rise in non-EU migration in the late 2010s. People who arrived around that time are now reaching the point where they can apply for citizenship, and non-EU migrants are generally more likely to naturalise than EU migrants.
More recent politics may also be playing a role. The government has recently introduced proposals to make it harder for migrants to qualify for Indefinite Leave to Remain (ILR), while other political parties have suggested that ILR should be rescinded from people who already hold it and that the rules for gaining British citizenship should be tightened. In that context, some people may feel it is better to apply for citizenship now rather than risk tougher requirements later, including many EU citizens. There’s also evidence that more Americans are applying for British citizenship, either through ancestry or naturalisation, though this is still a relatively small part of the overall increase.
The Migration Observatory is part of the Centre on Migration, Policy and Society (COMPAS) at the University of Oxford, an interdisciplinary research centre based in the School of Anthropology and Museum Ethnography. It provides independent, evidence-based analysis of UK migration data and policy, and does not make recommendations on what migration policy should be.
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