Features

Launching two major pieces of work about meat eating at the same time of year might not sound like ideal timing. But COVID-19 meant that LEAP, Oxford’s Livestock, Environment and People project, was faced with doing just that - launching two projects  not only in the same week but on the same day in May. But, actually, it works, according to Lucy Yates, LEAP’s Public Engagement Coordinator.

‘What an opportunity to reach different audiences at the same time,’ she said. ‘By inviting them to Oxford’s  Natural History Museum to see Meat the Future and going out to meet a broad range of people around the country with our touring installation, Meat Your Persona.’

LEAP research aims to contribute to an evidence-based discussion on the future of meat production and consumption: how frequently it should be eaten and its environmental and health impact. Some key research findings include: 

• Even if we cut all fossil fuel emissions immediately, we still would not reach climate change targets without also cutting food emissions.
• Eating high quantities of processed and unprocessed meat is associated with higher risks of colorectal cancer and ischemic heart disease among other diseases.

Meat the Future offers serious food for thought about how the consumption of meat affects our health and the planet. 

Meat the Future offers serious food for thought about how the consumption of meat affects our health and the planet. Showcased in striking, engaging displays, visitors to the museum can find out more about LEAP’s research and learn about the impact of meat eating. Displays include stacks of meat, which compare consumption in different countries. Visitors can browse a supermarket fridge, to find out more about ecolabels for foods, and be transported to the South American rainforest – where biodiversity is under acute attack from agriculture. They can also discover the carbon footprint of their own shopping habits in a specially developed digital interactive.

Professor Sir Charles Godfray, Co-Director of LEAP, Oxford Professor of Population Biology, and Director of the Martin School said, ‘With a population likely to peak above nine billion this century, Meat the Future asks how we square our growing demand for meat with the needs of the planet.’

Meat Your Persona, meanwhile, is a touring installation in a bright yellow horsebox, by design consultancy The Liminal Space. Subtitled ‘What you eat and how it can change the world’, it is also aimed at highlighting the impact of meat eating on the environment and the individual. It offers a fun quiz to find your ‘meat persona’ – such as the BLT or the Happy Eater – and there are a host of other interactive activities designed to help you find out more from new recipes to learning more about Leap’s research.

Meat Your Persona will provide us with invaluable insight into the UK's current thinking around meat consumption and, hopefully, encourage individuals to think more deeply about the impact their food choices have on our environment.

The travelling exhibition is designed to speak to diverse audiences about their meat consumption and be fun along the way.

So far, the yellow horse box has visited shopping centres in Cardiff, Leeds and Newcastle.  Blackpool and Glasgow are yet to come - along with a return trip to Leeds.

If you cannot see it in person, can take the quiz and find your meat persona at www.meatyourpersona.com.

Susan Jebb, Professor of Diet and Population Health, Co-Director of LEAP, commented, ‘Most people in the UK are unaware of the environmental impact of meat or the health harms caused by eating too much meat.  Meat Your Persona will provide us with invaluable insight into the UK's current thinking around meat consumption and, hopefully, encourage individuals to think more deeply about the impact their food choices have on our environment. This is often a difficult conversation to have, however we feel The Liminal Space has created a positive and engaging way to connect the public to our research.’

The response from the public so far has been very encouraging.

One visitor said, ‘Admiration for a brilliantly put together, very informative exhibition. As a result of this exhibit we have decided to cut beef from our diet for the rest of the family.’

A visitor to Meat Your Persona commented, ‘I am inspired by all the recipes. I think giving up meat would be good for my health so I want to try to cut down.’

After a far busier start to 2021 than she could have possibly imagined, Lucy Yates is delighted both projects have launched successfully and is looking forward to a summer of lively engagement and hearing the public’s thoughts on meat eating.

Come to visit Meat the Future at the Oxford Museum of Natural History or catch Meat Your Persona in Leeds, Blackpool, Glasgow or online. If you are interested in reducing your meat consumption, you can also sign up for our cohort study at www.optimisediet.org.

 Wellcome generously support both projects.

In spite of everything, many people still underestimate women, in general, and older women, in particular. They have clearly never encountered Kay Davies, the dynamic 70-year-old Oxford geneticist, who is ‘retiring’ after a lifetime’s research (but not really).  Just a few minutes immersed in the company of the self-effacing-but-determined Professor Dame, is enough to make anyone exhausted and put paid to stereotypes about women.

Forget about older women being invisible, you could not miss Professor Davies, who arrives promptly for her interview, lovely in a hallmark brightly coloured jacket 

Forget about older women being invisible, you could not miss Professor Davies, who arrives promptly for her interview, lovely in a hallmark brightly coloured jacket (more of which later).

But the professor’s story is even more arresting than her striking appearance. Having arrived in Oxford more than 50 years’ ago, Professor Davies has worked with some of the leading medical scientists of the last half century.

She has been tirelessly at the cutting-edge of genetic science; is close to a cure for a devastating genetic condition – and has found time to be a member of the Council of the Medical Research Council, Deputy Chair of the Wellcome Trust and hold a variety of other posts. Professor Davies has been honoured in the UK (a CBE, followed by a DBE in 2008) and in the US (by the American Society of Human Genetics) – oh...and she has a family.

Being a mother makes you well organised,’ laughs Professor Davies, with typical modesty.

That’s true, of course, but there’s well organised and well organised

‘Being a mother makes you well organised,’ she laughs, with typical modesty. That’s true, of course, but there’s well organised and well organised.

‘I am highly organised,’ Professor Davies admits. ‘Having a child makes you more organised. They come first and you arrange things around that. Mothers achieve so much.’

Professor Davies talks passionately of a lifetime spent researching a cure for Duchenne muscular dystrophy, a devastating genetic condition. Duchenne, which strikes boys, affects one in 100,000 globally and sees sufferers confined to a wheelchair, on average, by the age of 12 and rarely surviving their late 20s.

Professor Davies talks passionately of a lifetime spent researching a cure for Duchenne muscular dystrophy, a devastating genetic condition

It has been a labour of true dedication and many many hours in the lab. Having spent decades on genetic research into the condition, Professor Davies hopes there will be a cure within five years. In fact, she says firmly, she is not going to stop until one exists and, listening to her, you just know, she is going to do it – or someone else.

‘It’s been my life,’ she says. ‘I won’t retire until a cure is found.’

Professor Davies was researching genetic treatments when people still thought histone proteins were on the outside of DNA (they’re not) and she has followed the science through to a place where they are now tantalisingly close to major breakthroughs.

It’s been my life...I won’t retire until a cure is found

Professor Kay Davies

It has been a long journey for the clever girl from a state school in Stourbridge, who came to Oxford at the end of the 1960s to study Chemistry (which she did not really like very much) and then switched to Biochemistry.

It had been a very good all-girls school, she says, with an ‘extremely good’ Chemistry teacher. But the young Kay had not been able to take Biology, because, in those days, you needed Latin to go to Oxford and she could not take both.

‘I was never any good at languages,’ she says. ‘But I was good at Maths. I loved problem solving, which is why they probably accepted me.’

Arriving at Somerville, straight out of school, when many people then took the Oxbridge exam and applied post-A levels, she was among the youngest in her year – and one of the very few women. Although she had plenty of drive, she says, although it was a difficult start: she was ‘shy and not very confident’.

‘There were only a few females doing Chemistry,’ she says. ‘I was the only person from a state-funded school and one of the few from a working class background.’

She laughs, ‘I had something of an inferiority complex, although I was able to do the subject. I had drive, though, I probably got that from my mother. She had a lot of drive.’

I learned style from Mary Archer [a tutor at Somerville], but a lot else as well...I learned to be more ambitious and adopt a can-do attitude

Professor Davies

Oxford’s tutorial system helped the young scholar set aside her reserve. She says simply, ‘It was very competitive. But I found I was surrounded by amazing women.’

The then very young Mary Archer was a tutor at Somerville, ‘She was very driven and meticulously dressed, so stylish and intelligent.’

Professor Davies laughs, ‘I learned style from Mary Archer, but a lot else as well.’

‘I learned to be more ambitious and adopt a can-do attitude,’ she says.

Kay Davies: last day in the lab.

Oxford was a very different place in those days, she says, clearly full of enthusiasm about the way the university has changed, ‘It’s a lot more collaborative now than in the 70s. There’s such a buzz now...there are links between the medical sciences and other sciences and the whole thing functions much better.’

It is evidently a heart-felt sentiment. One of the key threads in the professor’s career has been her cross-disciplinary work – which began when she swapped Chemistry for Biology and medical sciences. After completing undergraduate degree, Kay took a DPhil in the very new study of the structure of genes. After completing her doctorate, Professor Davies went to Paris where her husband, later an Oxford professor of Chemistry, had a position.

Dr Davies commuted to London to work in a laboratory at St Mary’s hospital – just near Paddington station.

She says. ‘I got off the train at Paddington and went straight into the lab.’

Though still a young researcher, she worked with some of the pioneers of genetic research. At St Mary’s, she worked for Professor Bob Williamson, the distinguished British geneticist. It was ‘so exciting’, she says, but the cross-country commute was a bit much, even for Kay Davies.

Why Duchenne? Because it affects boys, so we could narrow down where we were looking for the gene, says Professor Davies

But finding and isolating the gene has not been simple

It took an intervention from the Nobel Laureate, genetic code specialist Professor Sydney Brenner, to suggest her return to Oxford. He clearly spotted something in her and decided she should be encouraged. In the days before HR, he picked up the phone and called Oxford.

‘He told them I should have a place...So I moved my fellowship to Oxford in 1984,’ she says.

Whilst in London, Professor Davies alighted on Duchenne. Why Duchenne?

‘Because it affects boys, so we could narrow down where we were looking for the gene,’ she says simply. But finding and isolating the gene has not been simple.

It has needed ‘tenacity and patience’, admits Professor Davies.

Kay Davies with, left to right: Ally Potter, Dave Powell and Angela Russell

In the event, the gene was found by others and it was ‘very large in the genome sequence’. Then a breakthrough came when a patient in Birmingham was found – who had just 50% of the gene. He had only just been diagnosed and had lived, although he had a milder version of Duchenne, into middle and then old age.

It offered considerable hope for sufferers – if only they could remove part of the gene, replicating the man’s variation. Since then, others have come forward with similar mild symptoms, says Professor Davies, who has become close to many families and charities involved in the debilitating condition.

It needs more screening of molecules for our approach to therapy...We screen a lot of molecules with the help of Angela Russell’s group in Chemistry. And we might end up curing those boys

Professor Davies

‘As a team, we’re very committed,’ she says.

They have to be. Finding a way to change the gene, for those with full-blown Duchenne was never going to be easy. Sufferers are living longer now, thanks to better treatments, but few live to see their 30^th birthday.

‘It needs more screening of molecules for our approach to therapy,’ she says. ‘We screen a lot of molecules with the help of Angela Russell’s group in Chemistry. And we might end up curing those boys.’

The gene therapy treatment could also be potentially used to treat other forms of Muscular Dystrophy, Professor Davies says with real passion.

And that’s the key, she says, Passion, ‘This isn’t work...you have to do what you’re passionate about and it will work out. And don’t feel bitter when people knock you back.’

It’s an important thought because, on many occasions during her career, she has been the only woman in a room of dark-suited men. Professor Davies laughs as she says she was occasionally mistaken for a tea lady, ‘You can’t feel bitter about it, that’s why I buy bright jackets. No one mistakes me for a tea lady anymore.’

When disasters such as earthquakes happen, governments and humanitarian organisations need to rapidly allocate aid resources to facilitate recovery, minimise the number of people displaced and reduce the long-term effects. This is a complex task that needs be undertaken in a very short space of time, with potentially serious consequences if not done well.

Being able to predict more accurately where people go in the wake of a disaster could be transformative for disaster management: it allows those coordinating the response to ensure shelters are placed in the best locations for the right number of people. Researchers at Department of Statistics, University of Oxford, in collaboration with the Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre (IDMC), have developed an open source software package to estimate displaced populations post-disaster, currently with a focus on earthquakes and cyclones. The software tool has been developed by Dr Hamish Patten and Prof David Steinsaltz, who form part of the department’s bio-demography group. The project, funded by the Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council Impact Acceleration Account (EPSRC-IAA) grant, has recently been published with the Global Report on Internal Displacement (GRID) 2021.

The research involved building an open source statistical software product consisting of two components:

· a back-end system which combines the data, model and state-of-the-art statistical methods into a predictive tool, learning from a broad range of historical events in order to make well-informed and accurate predictions of displacement post-disaster.

· a front-end system that interactively visualises the data and predictions, to allow a detailed exploration of important disaster information.

In a comparison of predictions against past displacement figures for over one-hundred earthquakes in 38 different countries around the world, the tool accurately predicted the total displaced population at least ten times more accurately than world leading risk models produced by the United States Geological Survey (USGS) and the Global Disaster Alerting Coordination System (GDACS). The predictions have also enabled a mapping of how the

displaced population is expected to be spatially distributed, which can be used to identify displacement ‘hotspots’ in order to allocate resources more effectively.

By coupling the software with mobile phone data-based displacement estimates provided by organisations such as Flowminder or Facebook Data for Good, we were able to produce a detailed mapping of the returned and displaced populations over time, something that has never been done before. The choice of emergency shelter locations and capacities can also be optimised with the software: given a list of potential shelter locations and capacities, the software package will produce the optimal choice of shelters. This is based on minimising the driving time between displaced populations to each potential shelter location, whilst also considering the finite capacity of each shelter.

The tool is being integrated into the risk models for IDMC, and discussions are also underway to integrate the tool into the risk models used by the International Federation of the Red Cross (IFRC). This research could have a huge impact on aid and resource allocation post-disaster.

Dr Hamish Patten, Research Associate at the Department of Statistics, said: 'Working on predicting disaster-related displacement has been a very stimulating challenge, having to bridge between academia and industry to produce a neat and polished software product for the humanitarian sector, in only six-months. The success of the project was to recognise that many recently-emerged datasets and data sources that can be used to validate risk models have been, until now, almost entirely unused.'

Dr Friederike Otto could not be more self-effacing and pleasant, answering obvious questions politely with patience and apparent interest. And yet the young Oxford professor of climate research is frankly...terrifying. It’s not her, she could not be nicer; it’s what she says. Over the last handful of years, major advances have meant that what were concerns over the impact on climate change, are understood realities. And, she says, it is costing thousands, perhaps millions, of deaths globally every single year.

What were concerns over the impact on climate change, are understood realities – and, says Dr Friederike Otto, it is costing thousands, perhaps millions, of deaths globally every single year

A six-year-old YouTube video of Fredi, as she is universally known, shows a fresh-faced postgraduate researcher telling an audience that deadly extreme weather events may be linked to climate change. Today, she may still be fresh faced, but there is no ‘may’ about it. 

Thanks to advances in weather observations and computer modelling-based research by Dr Otto and her team, they now have the data. Previously, climate predictions tended to be based on one model. Now, she and her team use hundreds, thousands of simulations of models - using supercomputers and individuals who lend their processing power. The use of very different models, high-quality observations and experience of many studies has led to her saying with certainty that climate change is behind more than one-in-three deaths from heat. She says, ‘Climate change makes hot extreme events [such as heatwaves in Europe] 100 times more likely.’

‘And we’re not talking about a bit of nice weather either,’ says Dr Otto. ‘The last heatwave in the UK caused 2,500 excess deaths.’

Climate change makes hot extreme events [such as heatwaves in Europe] 100 times more likely...And we’re not talking about a bit of nice weather either. The last heatwave in the UK caused 2,500 excess deaths

Dr Friederike Otto

Two thousand five hundred deaths...from heat in this country. Imagine how many more people are affected internationally; in hot countries - where extreme events are not even recorded. But how does she know that the increased numbers of extreme events are anything to do with climate change?

‘Using multiple computer models, we compare weather under current climate conditions with a hypothetical world without industrialisation. It’s our world, but without greenhouse gas. We see 1.2º global warming – half of which can be seen in the last few decades....the question is never whether this is caused by climate change, yes or no...There are more frequent extreme events now but heatwaves are the game changer...with all other extreme events, such as flooding, there might be some casualties, but with heatwaves there are always deaths.’

In a typically terrifying aside, Dr Otto says quietly, ‘There are no figures for many parts of the world. We don’t have the global excess mortality data, but 37% of deaths from heatwaves over the last 30 years have been caused by climate change. And that is a conservative estimate.’

There are more frequent extreme events now, but heatwaves are the game changer...with heatwaves there are always deaths

Dr Friederike Otto

She adds, ‘We will get hotter. Heatwaves are a huge problem and we don’t take them seriously enough....awareness is still very limited compared with flood risk.’

Dr Otto and her team are working at the forefront of climate science and she is highly sought-after for comments on every weather event. Earlier this month, she was quoted in media everywhere, talking about the impact of climate change on the French grape harvest [not good] and more recently she has been sought for comments about the heatwave currently affecting the north-west coast of North America. Dr Otto has also issued warnings about the lack of tracking of extreme heat events in Africa [really bad] and talked about the climate-linked cost of Hurricane Harvey [huge].

She is all-too-aware of the international politicisation of concerns over climate, ‘It’s a left/right issue, which is not helping.’

Dr Otto maintains, ‘It’s better in the UK, not so polarised...but global net zero goals will only work if all countries act.'

Five-year-old Fredi.

'I hated school,’ says Dr Otto. ‘I tried to be there are little as possible.’

But, because of the German education system, and her poor school record, Dr Otto was not able to apply to study such a ‘popular’ subject as History at university. And she was obliged to take either Physics or Engineering – the least popular subjects.

Arriving at Potsdam University, she studied Physics – and was originally very interested in quantum theory. Nevertheless, she also took the only option in climate, ‘basically meteorology not climate change,’ and did not find it very interesting at all. She stuck with quantum physics and also started studying philosophy.

She left Potsdam to take a PhD at a nearby university in Berlin. Increasingly, her interest was captured by the philosophy of science – what it means to be a scientist and what it is that makes science science. And this still underpins her work today, she says.

‘We ask if an event [a flood] is caused by climate change – does this really mean looking at the change in one day’s rainfall or actually the management of rivers...there is always a trade-off. We don’t have observations of all of reality, but these questions are not asked in climate science,’ she says.

Dr Otto is clearly determined to bring attention to the damage wrought by climate change in terms of extreme events. And she is excited by the research into climate finance and net zero pledges (from countries, business and organisation). Both are essential, she says, in the battle to reduce the deadly impacts of climate change. But the scientist is sanguine about whether the pledges will turn into reality, ‘They’ve talked the talk now let’s see them walk the walk.’

One of her students, has been following attempts to bring climate change claims against companies and governments through the courts. The impact could be enormous, says Dr Otto, who talks positively about the prospect of litigation forcing bodies into honouring their climate change pledges, ‘If countries are forced to act and show that they can transform, others will follow.’

She maintains, ‘The legal route will not be the only one, to solve problems. But there could be a ripple effect, [after a court ruling] and governments will do more...But it is especially important for companies to show they are doing something...and a lot of companies have more power than nation states.’

Big national polluters may not care about court rulings or international pressure, says Dr Otto, but ‘we need global net zero not just the UK’ and they do care about ‘money and global markets’

Big national polluters may not care about court rulings or international pressure, says Dr Otto, but ‘we need global net zero not just in the UK’ and they do care about ‘money and global markets’.

She points out, ‘If the European market has strict regulations for importing goods with carbon content, this could be an important factor...and finance is another. Right now, central banks are looking at climate risk.’

It is 10 years, to the day, since the young Dr Otto came to Oxford as a post-doctoral researcher without an employment contract. Now, she is Associate Director of the Environmental Change Institute and Associate Professor of the Climate Research Programme. And she insists, Oxford is ‘a fantastic place to work’.

‘You meet all sorts of people who work here and who come here. And from day one I had the absolute freedom to research what I found interesting as long as I could find the funding.’

People thought I was a weirdo doing something that scientists shouldn’t...a lot of people want to work with me now

Dr Friederike Otto

She talks warmly of her own graduate students, about whose research she is wholly supportive and enthusiastic, ‘Freedom has benefits and everyone here tries to help and support you, especially the admin staff. It’s completely different from universities elsewhere.’

Reflecting on her journey and the rapid development of climate change science, Dr Otto says, ‘People thought I was a weirdo doing something that scientists shouldn’t...a lot of people want to work with me now.’

In recent years, climate concerns have shot up the political agenda but not long ago environmentalists, who warned about the impact of human activity on the planet, were generally seen as fringe or even eccentric figures. Oxford professor, Philip Stier, is now at the forefront of climate science, as a leading researcher into clouds. He was very much ahead of the curve, but is the complete antithesis of the eccentric academic. 

In the days before social media, there was little interest in what one school child had to say about climate change. And, when the young Philip announced he wanted study climate, his friends thought there was little future in it

As a schoolboy in Germany in the 1990s, he was worried about the environment, so worried he had a file where he would keep the newspaper stories which appeared from time to time. And, while his friends cruised to school by car, he doggedly rode his bike past them, as they climbed into their cars, and went to the station and where he would take a train to class. It took a bit longer and was a bit less comfortable. His friends thought he was a bit mad. But, he recalls, ‘I was agitated about climate, even then.’

Professor Stier went to school by bike. His friends thought he was a bit mad.

In the days before social media, though, there was little interest in what one school child had to say about climate change. And, when the young Philip announced he wanted study climate at university, his friends and even some family, thought there was little future in it.

He laughs, ‘They said I would either become a ‘weather frog’ [a German TV forecaster] or a taxi driver...climate science wasn’t seen as likely to lead to a career.’

But Philip liked science, particularly Physics, and he was determined to study the link between climate and human activity. So, to the amusement of others, he chose to take meteorology at Munich, his local university. While many young Physicists were set on sorting out string theory and other ‘glamour’ questions, Philip wanted to apply science to environmental questions. After his undergraduate degree, he came to the UK to take a Masters and then returned to Germany to the famous Max Planck Institute for Meteorology in Hamburg for his doctorate. No one was laughing anymore.

‘It was a perfect match,’ he says enthusiastically. ‘I started doing a lot of research on aerosols (suspended particles) in the atmosphere.’

Clouds are a particular passion for Professor Stier. He admits to being able to talk at length on the subject of clouds, and sitting against a cloudy Oxford sky is clearly at home.

Clouds are a particular passion...Clouds are fantastic...I spend a lot of time looking at clouds. They have a huge effect on the Earth’s climate

Professor Philip Stier

‘Clouds are fantastic...I spend a lot of time looking at clouds, he says. ‘They have a huge effect on the Earth’s climate.’

But he is not looking to take on a role as a UK-based weather frog. Clouds, Professor Stier says, are scientifically very important in understanding climate change and are critical to research and solutions to the crisis. He explains, ‘There are natural aerosols in the atmosphere, for instance pollen, but there are other types of aerosols, man-made aerosols, caused by pollution. They modify the climate directly [by scattering and absorption of radiation] and affect clouds [which, in turn, affect the environment and climate]. This is because each cloud droplet in the atmosphere forms on an aerosol particle.’

These ‘polluted clouds’, which contain more aerosols and hence more cloud droplets, are brighter, says Professor Stier, ‘reflecting more sunlight back to space and therefore cooling the Earth’. However, aerosols  also reduce the air quality and affecting people’s health, especially all over the developing world.  Some of the aerosols, like sulfuric acid, are also chemically formed from gaseous emissions inside of cloud droplets. The more emissions we pump out, the more clouds become carriers of harmful pollution.

Like acid rain?

‘Yes,’ he says. ‘Like acid rain.’

Then, puncturing the sense of getting something right, he adds, ‘We tell our undergraduates, there are no wrong questions in Physics.’

Can you tell which are polluted clouds, just by looking at them?

‘That’s a big question,’ he says, with an air of knowing the answer.  ‘The clouds, which contain more aerosols, are brighter but it is impossible to tell from looking at a single polluted cloud how much brighter it is than in its natural state. We are looking now at new ways how they can be identified, which includes tracks from known pollution sources, such as ships and volcanoes, or new artificial intelligence techniques that allow us to analyse vast amounts of satellite data.’

The professor is very much against the ‘doomsday’ scenarios of popular culture, where menacing clouds precipitate the end of civilisation

There may be no wrong questions, but there are some very difficult answers in respect of cloud research. The science is not as simple as: reduce emissions, everything is all right.

Professor Stier reveals that, actually, even though they may be purveyors of pollution, aerosols partly shield us from the impact of climate change.

‘It’s a balancing act,’ he says. Getting rid of air pollution may actually increase the global temperature in the short term.

‘Uncertainty is very large,’ he says, of what may be the effect. ‘There is no doubt the greenhouse gas effect is happening and we know aerosols cool the Earth.’

Like a Bond movie: Volcano Albedo Effect Vortex clouds

But this is not a reason to pump out more pollutants, he insists.

‘We have to go to net zero, it is very urgent,’ he says. Man-made aerosols have devastating health impacts on parts of the developing world in particular, says Professor Stier. But take away their brightening of cloud banks reflecting back the sun’s rays and the world could become warmer in the short term (while greenhouse gas effects will dominate in the long term).

There could be increasing extreme weather events and colleagues across the University provide the scientific evidence attributing our changing weather to climate change, he says. There could be tipping points for the climate. But, although it sounds like the plot of a disaster movie, the professor is very much against the ‘doomsday’ scenarios of popular culture, where menacing clouds precipitate the end of civilisation.

In a James Bond-style plotline, he admits there has been research into using technology to mimic the cooling impact of massive volcanic eruptions or to brighten clouds to lower artificially the temperature

He maintains Oxford is a key place for cloud and climate research and he says, soothingly, this is a question of fluid dynamics, although no one fully understands what clouds will do in a changing climate. But, in a James Bond-style plotline, he admits there has been research into using technology to mimic the cooling impact of massive volcanic eruptions or to brighten clouds to lower artificially the temperature.

‘There can be a significant temperature drop for as much as two years after a volcanic eruption.’

So could we use aerosols to protect us? Er...yes, perhaps, he says.

‘It would be very risky,’ says Professor Stier. ‘If we developed technology, the global temperature could be reduced but the risk is that people would do nothing about emissions so that the radiative impact of greenhouse gases continue to accumulate. It may be possible but we don’t know what would be the impact on the e.g. ozone layer or regional climate, precipitation and extreme events. That would be a very big risk as well.’

In other words, Bond villains need not apply. Professor Stier emphasises that following the science to a net zero emission future is the best way forward. But, he admits, most scientists travel too much.

‘We have to do this for work,’ he says ruefully. But, he maintains, aeroplanes in themselves are not the real problem. It is the distance, rather than technology, which creates the large carbon footprint.

It may be possible [to use cloud technology to cool the Earth] but we don’t know what would be the impact on the ozone layer or regional climate, precipitation and extreme events. That would be a very big risk

‘Going by air is no more polluting than travelling by car – but it tends to be much longer journeys,’ he says. ‘So the impact is much larger.’

Professor Stier has a hybrid car, although he rarely drives, preferring to walk or cycle. And even used to live in the home of the freeway, Los Angeles, when he could not even drive.

‘There is a public transport system, only most people don’t use it, he laughs.

It is not easy being environmentally conscious, even now. Try to get a heat pump fitted, he says. Such small frustrations aside, Professor Stier may not believe in doomsday scenarios, but he is keen to impress that there is no time to waste. And, scientific work, into climate, including clouds, is the key to the crisis.