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Eighty five per cent of children around the world in more than 150 countries are affected by school closures due to COVID-19. Many are currently receiving no education. And internationally, the fear is that some, not least girls, will never return to school. While the public health concerns of COVID-19 should, no doubt, be tackled now, policy makers could also act swiftly to avoid the education crisis turning into an education disaster.

Policy makers could also act swiftly to avoid the education crisis turning into an education disaster

No one knows how the virus will wreak havoc in coming months. Will there be a second peak in Europe or China? Will Africa escape the worst of the pandemic? Will the virus be contained in Latin America or South Asia, where it is currently not quite at its peak? The final consequences are fundamentally uncertain.

But this should not stop us acting now. Some potential actions are ‘no-regret’ policies - no one will regret them later and they are a good use of resources now - however the pandemic evolves. Elsewhere, I have expanded on no-regret policies in the areas of public health, social protection, the economy and the manufacturing and distribution of a vaccine when it becomes available. Here, I want to focus on no-regret policies for education, specifically for lower and middle income countries - though they have global relevance.

This blog argues for three areas of no-regret policies:

• First, ensuring learning continues to happen in whatever form is possible;
• Second, that special actions are prepared for remedial action and reversing dropout later; and
• Third, learning the lessons from digital education, in order to move towards a more inclusive and effective digital learning system later, even in resource-constrained countries.

COVID-19 could not have come at a worse time for children. It is generally acknowledged that there is a serious learning crisis in the developing world. While enrolment has increased to historically unprecedented rates, too few children are learning. For example, a recent World Bank report highlighted that three out of four children in grade 3 in Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda cannot read a sentence such as, ‘the name of the dog is puppy’. In India, by grade 3, three-quarters of children cannot solve 46 minus 17, and by grade 5, it is still a problem for half of them.

Abhijeet Singh, an Oxford DPhil, now at Stockholm School of Economics, has shown that pupils typically start at similar levels, but then some fall behind, never to catch up, in the kind of school systems we find across these countries. And now, children who were especially at risk of falling behind, have lost their access to school because of COVID-19. Often, such children are from disadvantaged families – and now they have to learn at home, if at all.

Children who were especially at risk of falling behind, have lost their access to school because of COVID-19

The first no-regret policy should be to try to keep children learning now, as much as we can. Some are at risk of falling behind in the way Dr Singh has shown - and catching up never quite happens in the educational systems of the developing world. And the signs are not good. Work by the Centre for Global Development found that 95% of children, currently at home in Senegal, were not given any work by teachers, while 30% were not involved in anything educational. Supporting learning by any means available is essential – digitally, via radio or TV, via homework distributed to children’s houses, community workers identifying children vulnerable to lose out and more.

The second no-regret policy should be to prepare now to ensure children are identified and targeted for remedial education, or to reverse drop-out later. Children will be behind, but some will be more behind than others. This is the time to plan for better forms of remedial teaching, such as the type of programmes pioneered by Pratham in India, and in recent years across the world. Evidence of their potential at scale is strong as joint work, including with the RISE programme and others at Blavatnik School of Government at Oxford, have shown.

There is another reason why it is important to do this now. Much evidence exists to show that, during economic hardship, children will not just temporarily leave school, but do so permanently. And this is likely to happen now too. This affects, not least girls - with early marriage one of the consequences. It is the time to consider how such children, who may intend to drop out, can be reached. Maybe conditional cash transfers, targeted at adolescent girls, could be considered, whereby cash is offered to families conditional on children doing homework - which will continue after schools reopen, if children continue to attend.

Much evidence exists to show that, during economic hardship, children will not just temporarily leave school, but do so permanently. And this is likely to happen now too

The third no-regret policy concerns digital learning: this may well be its time. But, unless we start acting now, this will be the start of more learning inequalities rather than fewer in the future.

All over the world, the scale of digital teaching and learning has exploded, with countries and schools looking for ways to connect to pupils. Crucially, though, there are huge inequalities of access within countries - and between them. This was highlighted by a report we did at Blavatnik School of Government - as at least three billion people remain digitally unconnected.

No doubt, the appetite for digital learning will be increased by this crisis. And doing this as well as we can is a first step. But if we do not start attacking digital inequalities through inclusive access, and prepare now to roll out at scale across the world, educational inequalities will continue to expand ever more. Work on a Digital Roadmap and Digital Toolkits may help policy makers get ahead. But there is more. The way digital tools, such as Zoom, Teams, Skype and the like, have been used for education all over the world is only exploiting their communication opportunities.

Digital learning systems are very different. If used well, they allow low-cost individualised learning at the right level with feedback loops to suit each child, rather than exposure to the same for all children in a ‘Zoom’ class. This has substantial potential in low-resource environments. A recent report by a team I led at Oxford gives more ideas. The key now is to learn as much as we can from the digital experiences during the crisis, and then get educational systems ready to using digital tools in the future in an inclusive way.

The developing world faces a learning crisis...We do not have to wait until after the COVID-19 virus has passed to start tackling it. Nobody will regret acting now

The developing world faces a learning crisis, exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic. We do not have to wait until after the COVID-19 virus has passed to start tackling it. Nobody will regret acting now. And it will make responding later easier - and more affordable.

 Professor Stefan Dercon

University of Oxford (Blavatnik School of Government and Economics Department)

Most of the biological processes that keep us alive depend on multiple proteins working together. One of biology’s great puzzles is how this multitude of proteins and their complex interactions came to be.

Now, an international team, including University of Oxford Professor Justin Benesch and DPhil student Shane Chandler from the Department of Chemistry, has revealed that complexity can evolve through surprisingly simple mechanisms. They identified the evolutionary “missing link” through which haemoglobin — the protein complex that transports oxygen in our blood — evolved from simple precursors.

They found that the emergence of modern haemoglobin’s structure and function was triggered by just two mutations more than 400 million years ago. The team, led by the University of Chicago, also included researchers from Texas A&M University and University of Nebraska-Lincoln. 

The study, Origin of complexity in haemoglobin evolution, was published today in the journal Nature. 

The team’s strategy was a kind of molecular time travel going back hundreds of millions of years. They used statistical and biochemical methods to reconstruct and characterise ancient proteins before, during and after the earliest forms of haemoglobin were evolving. This allowed them to identify the missing link during haemoglobin evolution – a two-part complex, which existed before the last common ancestor of humans and sharks. This ancient complex did not yet possess any of the critical properties that allow modern haemoglobin to carry oxygen from the lungs to the brain, muscles and other tissues. 

A key question was to determine through which interfaces the ancient proteins assembled, a question tackled by Chandler and Benesch in Oxford, who said: 'Part of the puzzle that needed to be solved was how haemoglobin attained its four-subunit structure. This required us to develop new methods for detecting protein-protein interfaces and revealed the historical order of assembly of this remarkable molecule.'

The traditional view of how biological complexity evolves is that it increases gradually over the course of many mutations that each cause small improvements in fitness. The new research shows that complicated new structures can come into being very quickly.

University of Chicago Professor, Joseph Thornton, who led the study, said: 'We were blown away when we saw that such a simple mechanism could confer such complex properties. This suggests that jumps in complexity can happen suddenly and even by chance during evolution, producing new molecular entities that eventually become essential to our biology.'

Read the study, “Origin of complexity in haemoglobin evolution,” in the journal Nature. 

Racial and class-based divisions, economic strife and extreme politics have all followed pandemics in history, as suffering populations and authorities have sought answers and scapegoats for their plight. Whatever tensions or problems existed, epidemics have found them, sharpened them and they have come into the open as the illness receded - from the Black Death in 1348 to the plague of 1665 from the 19^th century cholera epidemics and the 1918 flu to HIV/AIDS. Many large-scale outbreaks of disease have resulted in scapegoating of minorities and been followed by prolonged civil unrest.

But Oxford Professor of Medical History, Mark Harrison says, ‘When there has been extremism and tensions [following an epidemic], they have already existed....Epidemics in themselves don’t cause tensions, they expose them....The lesson of history is that epidemics accentuate problems and bring them into the open.’

When there has been extremism and tensions [following an epidemic], they have already existed....Epidemics in themselves don’t cause tensions, they expose them

The effects can be dramatic, as evident in even recent years: in 1986, the Duvalier family, which had ruled Haiti for nearly three decades, was swept from power after the country's economy was brought to its knees  in the midst of the AIDs crisis. Jean-Claude ‘Baby Doc’ Duvalier, who took power after his father's death in 1971, had previously enjoyed overseas backing for his regime. But panic around the condition was widespread in the mid-1980s and the Haitians were made a 'special risk factor group'.  The impact of that decision on the Haitian population and on 'Baby Doc' was enormous. The nation's travel industry collapsed virtually overnight and with it went the precarious economy.  Haitians are perceived to have been doubly victimised: first by the import of HIV/AIDS from the US and then by the stigmatisation of Haitians.  But the link with AIDs, and the action taken of naming the nation, saw the unpopular Haitian regime driven from power after nearly 30 years in charge and 'Baby Doc' leave for exile. 

Horror

In earlier centuries, there have been a variety of responses to pandemics and epidemics - some have been extreme, even heinous, others have followed as a consequence of the illness and the loss of life. Six centuries before the Duvaliers were forced out of Haiti, the Black Death of 1348 saw anything from one third to a half of Europe's population wiped out, as plague raged across the Continent. The enormous magnitude of the crisis, saw a complete change in the social landscape and, in the aftermath, there were horrific anti-Semitic attacks across Europe. Rumours and wild accusations led to populations and their rulers looking for scapegoats - and to cancel debts and seize Jewish property - and there are records of appalling attacks on whole communities.

Scapegoating of communities or individuals, has followed in the wake of other pandemics, as people have sought answers or simply to punish those they hold responsible. But reports from 1349, also show that a penitent movement, the flagellants, developed, comprising survivors of the pandemic. They moved from country to country flogging themselves in public, to atone for their sins - which, it was feared, had caused the Black Death.

 The Black Death of 1348 saw anything from one third to one half of Europe's population wiped out...and, in the aftermath of the plague, horrific anti-Semitic attacks across Europe

Long term impacts

After the initial horror, the Black Death had a long-term impact on the social fabric of Europe. With so many peasants losing their lives,  the epidemic was followed by a labour shortage and wage inflation. Since the lower classes were able to command greater rewards for their work, the days of peasants being tied to a master's land were largely gone.  It effectively proved to be the end to serfdom in England, with peasants, who were previously unable to leave their master's lands, seeking better opportunities and more money in towns. For those who survived the pandemic, it meant the possibility of mobility and a better standard of living. There was such concern among the ruling class, about the increase in wages and peasants roaming the country searching for better job opportunities, that the 1350 Statute of Labourers' Act was enacted. This made it illegal to receive higher wages than had been offered in 1346, ‘the twentieth year of our reign of King Edward III’. 

There is also evidence, says Professor Harrison and fellow medical historian Dr Claas Kirchhelle, that suffering and epidemics bring communities together, across cultural and class divides, as they combine to fight illness and prevent outbreaks.  Responses to the same pandemic have also differed in different countries, with some looking to blame while other populations reacted with cooperation. The Spanish were not held responsible for the Spanish Flu, which had not originated in the Iberian peninsula anyway. And, according to Dr Kirchhelle, 'The third plague pandemic saw different faiths and ethnicities in the cosmopolitan Egyptian city of Alexandria come together to take communal health action.'

Around the world, the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic has manifested in populations spontaneously coming together in song or in support of healthcare workers. In countries, such as Germany, where there was an effective initial response to the pandemic, recent opinion polls indicate a rise of trust in government parties and a decline in support for opposition parties and the far right - despite individual acts of militancy.  But, in the US, some groups have been demanding the lifting of restrictions, in the face of lockdowns, and at the same time there has been criticism of the handling of the epidemic and inequalities.  

Backlash

According to Professor Harrison, much depends on how the pandemic is handled by governments and whether this is seen to be fair or furthering inequality. We are yet to see the aftermath of COVID-19 but, Professor Harrison says, there is already evidence of a ‘backlash’ with many attacks on 5G installations and online conspiracy theories receiving more-than-usual attention and support. He maintains, ’In some previous cases [in history], governments have inflamed tensions. [In other cases] it has been economic effects or class or racial/ethnic tensions.’ 

Professor Harrison adds, ‘The 5G attacks aren't simply based on conspiracy theories, but have been conducted by people who appear to see the communications infrastructure as a form of oppression and want to hinder a return to normality.’

The 5G attacks aren't simply based on conspiracy theories but have been conducted by people who appear to see the communications infrastructure as a form of oppression and want to hinder a return to normality

Throughout history, populations have sometimes responded dramatically to the problems faced by illness within their society. In London of 1665, which was riven by plague, there were riots and attacks on the authorities. People flouted restrictions on movement and deep social divisions were exposed as the wealthy classes fled, leaving poorer people in the plague-ridden capital. But, once the danger was over, people flocked back to London. According to Samuel Pepys, ‘Now the plague is abated almost to nothing… to our great joy, the town fills apace, and shops begin to be open again’.  

‘Inequality became an issue in 1665,’ says Professor Harrison. ‘And the cholera epidemics of the 19^th century exacerbated tensions between the working class and governments in Paris and Moscow.’ 

But what causes huge upheaval in one country, will not necessarily be reflected in others. According to Dr Kirchhelle, the cholera pandemics also inspired significant collective action for public health. While initial British responses to cholera were unstructured, the period between the 1850s and 1890s saw different cities, local authorities, and successive national governments decide to construct large-scale affordable water, sanitation, and hygiene systems throughout Britain. Financed by cheap credit and local taxation, citizens took great pride in their collectively-built and owned health infrastructure.

Responses and reactions

Ultimately, Professor Harrison maintains, ‘Situations in different countries, lead to different outcomes....What should concern us about the present pandemic is the longer term impact, the economic impact.’  

He says, ‘Class and ethnicity can become an issue, if there is perceived to be an unequal impact of a disease and the way it is handled...If poor people are seen to be more at risk and if the lockdown is felt more by them, then it can lead to tensions.'

Key to the likely response, will be the measures brought in to deal with easing the restrictions. Sensitive ‘policing coupled with targeted aid for vulnerable communities becomes really important’

 While public support of collective symbols such as the National Health Service is at an all-time high, we are already seeing significant concerns about the disproportionate effects of the pandemic in poorer urban areas and British Asian and Middle Eastern communities, says Dr Kirchhelle.

‘There could also be a perception of a generational divide, (which is already there in our society) and those most likely to break measures are youths and young adults,’ Professor Harrison maintains. ‘They already resent the lockdown and the economic measures. It is a toxic mixture.’

Key to the likely response, says Professor Harrison, will be the measures brought in to deal with easing the restrictions. Sensitive ‘policing coupled with targeted aid for vulnerable communities becomes really important’. 

Rumours and theories are often rife in times of epidemics, more so now because of the easy international methods of communication. According to Professor Harrison, ‘In previous epidemics, rumours have expressed a social truth of marginalisation...and they can become a focus for action.’

He has concerns about potential for scapegoating communities, ‘There is disinformation on all sides at the moment...but in previous epidemics, countries have become concerned about other countries who were seen to be taking advantage of the situation.’

Professor Harrison says, ‘In the 1890s, the European powers imposed heavy quarantines and embargoes [because of cholera] against their competitors. But these became untenable over time. Their economies were interconnected and they had to work together....And it led to the first international sanitary agreements.’

Both academics hope for a similar response to the COVID-19 crisis, with the best way out of the current and future pandemics lying in rapid, transparent, and collective international action to coordinate public health interventions, develop effective diagnostics, vaccines, and therapeutics, and protect vulnerable communities. According to Professor Harrison, ‘This probably will come about because of shared economic interests, but it won't happen immediately in all sectors.’

By Dr Gina Crivello

Approximately 90 per cent of the world’s 1.2 billion young people (aged 15-24) live in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). They are navigating the coronavirus pandemic at a critical period in the life course when they are expected to set the foundations for their adult lives. Intersecting age, gender and economic vulnerabilities affect their varied experiences and capacities to cope and recover in this crisis. Yet the spread and scale of the coronavirus in LMICs and our understanding of how people at different life stages are being affected, and how, continues to evolve. And while older people and those with underlying health conditions are clearly the most vulnerable to COVID-19, the consequences of economic recession for marginalised youth is likely to be long-lasting.

The recent comparative study of Young Marriage and Parenthood (YMAPS) in four low- and middle-income countries underscores the need to identify how best to support young people coming of age in challenging settings, and which groups of youth might be particularly vulnerable in times of acute crisis. A collaboration between Young Lives (Ethiopia, India, Peru) and Child Frontiers (Zambia), YMAPS involved 345 individuals, prior to the coronavirus pandemic, including married, cohabiting, divorced and parenting male and female adolescents and youth (age 15-24), in interviews about their everyday life experiences, relationships and support needs.

The findings from this study indicate that the millions of young people in LMICs are managing the gendered responsibilities of first-time marriage, cohabitation and parenthood, already with limited economic resources and weak safety nets. They will struggle in the face of the global crisis. There is a real risk that the pandemic will exacerbate inequalities within their intimate relationships and family lives and create further social and economic divisions among this generation of youth. To avoid this, the findings from this study point to a range of possible secondary effects that need to be addressed for young people in LMICs in both the acute and recovery phases of the pandemic:

Economic Precarity: Young people faced economic precarity even before the pandemic. Most youth in these settings make their living from the informal economy, without written contracts, job security or benefits, including access to sick pay and unemployment. Prior to the current crisis, the families who reported the greatest number of economic and environmental shocks were also those with the fewest economic and social resources to cope. For young households, the pressures were already severe, often leading to separation or divorce, and sometimes to violence. We can expect economic recession to destabilise the already fragile livelihoods of young couples and young families in these settings.

Gender Inequality: Despite awareness of gender equality among the younger generation, young people continue to be socially conditioned to take on gender-stereotyped family roles, expecting men to be ‘breadwinners’ and girls and women to take on nearly all responsibility for unpaid housework and childcare - no matter if they also do paid work.

Above all else, [my girlfriend] looks after the baby and the house … [w]hat we are having to eat, she looks after everything […]. She takes care of her pots, her things. I take care of my cars […]. Before she makes any decisions, she has to talk to me.

- Young man, cohabited, age 20, peri-urban Peru

There are concerns that gender inequality is becoming further entrenched during the pandemic as women bear the brunt of additional unpaid workloads.

Even before stay-at-home measures were imposed in response to COVID-19, married girls and young women faced high levels of surveillance by husbands and in-laws, and their contact with childhood friends and family was also mediated by them. Young women in these circumstances found it difficult to seek help when they experienced domestic conflict or violence from their husbands, partners or in-laws. This was unfortunately common, and by several accounts, is already rising significantly in many countries during the pandemic.

Unintended Pregnancies: Young people’s aspirations to marry and have children in their 20s were thwarted by unintended pregnancies in their teen years. Early pregnancies led young people to marry or start living together even though many felt unprepared to take on these adult responsibilities.

Our research found that, even before the pandemic, adolescents and young people struggled to access modern contraception and contraceptive advice until after the birth of their first child, and safe abortion services were limited.

I came to know about these things only after becoming pregnant … I was not aware of these techniques before marriage … Even he [my husband] was not aware of the family planning methods.

- Young woman, married and became pregnant age 19, rural India

Access to contraceptives and other sexual and reproductive health services will be compromised in the context of lockdowns and travel restrictions, and in places with less effective health systems, potentially resulting in millions of unintended pregnancies and unsafe abortions in LMICs. Research on the 2014 Ebola outbreak in West Africa found that school closures contributed to an increase in adolescent pregnancies, and policies prevented pregnant girls from returning to school when they opened; the long-lasting effects on gender inequality are well documented. There are predictions the COVID-19 pandemic will result in an additional 13 million child marriages over the next decade, and an increase in unintended pregnancies.

Priorities to assist young people in marriage and parenthood during & post COVID-19

Our findings point to a range of specific measures at national level that take what young people have told us into account. These might minimise the longer-term impacts of COVID-19 on this formative period in their lives. Short- and medium-term responses should do more than avoid exacerbating gender and other inequalities exposed by the pandemic; they should be designed to reduce them. They include:

• Step up child marriage prevention policies and practices after the lockdown to ensure that the numbers do not rise;
• Encourage and support young women and young men to return to school after pregnancy and marriage or cohabitation;
• Take account of married and cohabiting adolescents in poverty alleviation and livelihoods strategies directed at the poorest families;
• Improve protections for informal labourers and ensure that post the pandemic young people have access to decent work;
• Ensure affordable access to modern contraceptives and sexual and reproductive health rights and services;
• Address the sources of domestic conflict and ensure women can safely get help at all times;
• Promote women’s access to safe public spaces, when lockdowns are no longer in place;
• Ensure boys and men’s attitudes are more gender equal and that they contribute fairly to the share of unpaid work and caregiving within the home;
• Decrease women’s financial dependence by promoting access to education, suitable work opportunities, and quality affordable childcare;
• Strengthen systems supporting young families to confront existing and future risk.

We need to be aware of, and prepare for these measures now, not in several months’ time. Otherwise this unprecedented crisis threatens to set back decades of progress and blight the futures of the generation now growing up under the shadow of COVID.

Note: The comparative analysis from the four country ‘Young Marriage and Parenthood Study’ (YMAPS) and international policy recommendations are published on May 15th, and can be found alongside detailed country study findings on the Young Lives website here.

What can history teach us about tackling pandemics? How can they shape our response to climate change? These questions are being explored in a new series of live, virtual events from the Humanities Cultural Programme.

While physical events are not be possible in Oxford this term, the ‘Big Tent! Live Events!’ series will bring together Oxford academics, leading figures in the arts and even pop stars like Jamelia. They will discuss the biggest questions of our day through the lens of research.

Events will be streamed live at 5pm every Thursday, and the recording will be made available online shortly afterwards.

Dr Victoria McGuinness, Head of Cultural Programming, said: "Although it is disappointing not to be able to bring people together for these events, moving to digital actually lets us reach bigger and more global audiences than would otherwise be possible."

Thousands of people from around the world took part in the first events, and we invite everyone to tune in, listen and type out your thoughts and questions for our speakers every week from 5pm.”

Some of the events so far have been very relevant for our present circumstances. Last month, Professor Sally Shuttleworth (English Faculty) and Professor Erica Charters (History Faculty) explored the treatment of health and disease in the past, particularly in the 18th and 19th centuries when invalids were actively encouraged to travel.

Earlier this month, Professor Abigail Williams explained her research into the history of reading aloud and performance at home in the 18th century. Back then, drawing rooms regularly hosted book groups, tea parties, amateur dramatics and singing. In discussion with Giles Lewin, she gave her thoughts on the revival of domestic entertainment while we have been in lockdown.

Last month, Emma Smith, Professor of Shakespeare Studies, marked the Bard’s birthday in a discussion with Erica Whyman OBE, Deputy Artistic Director of the Royal Shakespeare Company.

Shakespeare, it turned out, did some of his writing while in quarantine to avoid the plague.

In the first event to be held, anthropologists Dr Elizabeth Ewart and JC Niala discussed human relationship to cities, and JC Niala’s doctoral research into 'guerrilla gardeners' who operate in cities such as London and Oxford.

Future events will include a discussion of the world after Covid-19 on 18 June. This will be a conversation between Professor Ngaire Woods (Dean of the Blavatnik School of Government) and Professor Peter Frankopan (History Faculty), who will bring together complementary expertise in present day governance and lessons from history.

On 7 May, Professor Philip Bullock (Modern and Medieval Languages) and Dr Leah Broad (Music Faculty) celebrated the 180th anniversary of the birth of Tchaikovsky with a discussion of how the Russian composer became such a revered figure.

The full list of past and upcoming events can be found here:

https://torch.ox.ac.uk/article/launch-big-tent-big-ideas

The Humanities Cultural Programme is part of the Stephen A. Schwarzman Centre for the Humanities. It will benefit from state-of-the-art facilities including a 500-seat auditorium, when the building the opens, which is schedule for the academic year 2024/25.