Expert Comment: Professor Jane Green provides analysis on the UK 2024 General Election for ITV News

Do General Election campaigns actually influence the result?

Professor Jane Green looks at why political campaigns rarely influence voters, and what actually helps people make up their minds on ITV News.

Election campaigns rarely decide election outcomes, according to an ITV News analysis by Professor Jane Green. Despite extensive efforts, campaigns rarely alter the winner, which is more influenced by long-term factors and voter identities formed during early adulthood. Exceptions, such as the 2017 UK election where Labour's campaign outperformed expectations while the Conservatives underperformed, are rare. Generally, fundamental political and social identities, values, and beliefs shape voter decisions more than the campaigns themselves.

For more details, read the full article.

Why do opinion polls matter - and can we trust them?

Professor Jane Green explains how polls work, whether we can trust them, and how they do much more than create headlines on ITV News.

Opinion polls are crucial in the run-up to elections, providing insights into public sentiment and guiding political and media strategies. Despite their importance, scepticism persists regarding their accuracy. Polls, which sample around 1,000 or more people, must reflect the UK's demographic diversity to be reliable. Polls become more predictive as elections near, but individual polls can vary. Consistent patterns, rather than isolated results, offer better insights. While polls can influence voter behavior, they aren't infallible, and localized voting dynamics, such as for tactical voting, also play a significant role in election outcomes.

For more details, read the full article.

Why does Scotland matter so much in this election?

Does Scotland matter in this election? In a word, yes. Scotland is a key contest in this election. Professor Jane Green explains why on ITV News.

Scotland plays a crucial role in the 2024 UK election due to its potential to influence the overall outcome. Historically dominated by Labour, Scotland shifted to the Scottish National Party (SNP) post-1999 devolution and the 2014 Independence Referendum. Labour's resurgence in Scotland, amid SNP scandals and UK-wide Conservative challenges, makes it a pivotal battleground now. Tight races and tactical voting around independence further amplify Scotland's knife-edge significance. Labour's performance in Scotland could be decisive for achieving a large majority in Westminster.

For more details, read the full article.

After the polls close on 4 July, Professor Jane Green will be providing analysis live in the studio on ITV News, with George Osborne, Ed Balls and Nicola Sturgeon for Election 2024 Live: The Results.